РАЧУНАРСКО МОДЕЛОВАЊЕ ПРОПАГАЦИЈЕ РИЗИКА У МУЛТИАГЕНТНИМ СИСТЕМИМА: РЕГИОНАЛНА СТУДИЈА СЛУЧАЈА
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63356/asb.2025.006Ključne reči:
рачунарско моделовање, анализа ризика, планирање сценарија, агентно моделовање, моделовање међународних односа, геополитички хеџингApstrakt
Представљен је својеврсни оквир за рачунарско моделовање усмјерен на анализу начина на који се ризици шире у мултиагентним системима, а које карактеришу међузависне политичке, економске и локалне интеракције. Приступ интегрише Бејзове мреже, Марковљеве процесе и агентно моделовање ради обухватања и вјероватносних зависности и динамичких повратних спрегa на више нивоа система. Омогућена је симулација хетерогених агената чија адаптивна понашања доводе до спонтаних новонастајућих исхода, што омогућава тестирање осјетљивости и анализу сценарија под различитим спољним поремећајима. Регионална студија случаја која се односи на српско-хрватски геополитички хеџинг коришћена је за валидацију методологије, при чему је показано како спрегнути ризици (политички, енергетски и локални) нелинеарно дјелују на укупну стабилност система. Резултати истичу критичне прагове на којима локални поремећаји ескалирају у системске отказе, потврђујући способност предложеног оквира да идентификује обрасце рањивости и стратегије отпорности у сложеним адаптивним системима. Предложена интеграција вјероватносног и агентног моделовања доприноси квантитативној аналитици ризика и пружа преносиво оруђе за примјену подршке одлучивању у доменима који укључују неизвјесност, повратне спреге и интеракцију више учесника.
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