THE COMPUTATIONAL MODELING OF RISK PROPAGATION IN MULTI-AGENT SYSTEMS: A REGIONAL CASE STUDY
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63356/asb.2025.006Keywords:
computational modeling, risk analysis, scenario planning, agent-based modeling, international relations modeling, geopolitical hedgingAbstract
This study presents a computational modeling framework for analyzing how risks propagate within multi-agent systems characterized by interdependent political, economic, and local interactions. The approach integrates Bayesian networks, Markov processes, and agent-based modeling to capture both probabilistic dependencies and dynamic feedback loops across multiple system levels. The framework enables the simulation of heterogeneous agents whose adaptive behaviors generate emergent outcomes, allowing sensitivity testing and scenario exploration under varying external shocks. A regional case study regarding the Serbian-Croatian geopolitical hedging is used to validate the methodology, demonstrating how coupled risks (political, energy, and local) interact non-linearly to influence overall system stability. The results highlight critical thresholds at which local perturbations escalate into systemic failures, confirming the framework’s capacity to identify vulnerability patterns and resilience strategies in complex adaptive systems. The proposed integration of probabilistic and agent-based modeling contributes to quantitative risk analytics and provides a transferable tool for decision-support applications across domains involving uncertainty, feedback, and multi-actor interaction.
References
Bajić, V. (2025, October 9). Croatia’s JANAF halts crude supply to Serbia’s NIS as U.S. sanctions take effect. SeeNews. Retrieved from: https://tinyurl.com/3na3pj46
Bechev, D. (2023, January 19). Hedging its bets: Serbia between Russia and the EU. Carnegie Europe. Retrieved from: https://tinyurl.com/4unw4jxe
Bours, J., Tanaka, R. & Vogel, M. (2024). Dynamic alliance networks and hedging behavior in small states. Journal of Peace Research, 61(4), 512-528. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343324123456
Bradshaw, M., Van de Graaf, T. & Connolly, R. (2023). Global energy outlook 2023: Energy security and transition. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. https://doi.org/10.26889/9781784672227
Cederman, L.E. (1997). Emergent actors in world politics: How states and nations develop and dissolve. Princeton University Press.
Cederman, L.-E. (2002). Modeling the size of wars: From billiard balls to sandpiles. American Political Science Review, 97(1), 135-150. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000535
Cederman, L.-E. (2019). Complexity and international relations: Modeling power transitions and conflict dynamics. International Studies Quarterly, 63(3), 567-580. https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqz041
Cederman, L.-E. & Weidmann, N. B. (2017). Predicting armed conflict: Time to adjust our expectations? Science, 355(6324), 474-476. DOI: 10.1126/science.aal4483
Cho, Y. N. & Park, J. (2013). Hedging in South Korea’s foreign policy: Strategic ambivalence as an emerging power. The Pacific Review, 26(2), 169-194. https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2012.759260
De Marchi, S. & Page, S. E. (2014). Agent-based models. Annual Review of Political Science, 17, 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-100711-135101
Energy Community. (2023). Annual implementation report 2023. Energy Community Secretariat. Retrieved from: https://www.energy-community.org
Euronews. (2025, September 25). The EPP launches an internal scrutiny process over the membership of Vučić’s party. Euronews. Retrieved from: https://tinyurl.com/2yb35r5y
Figiaconi, F. (2025). Choosing not to choose: Hedging as a category of neutrality. European Journal of International Security, 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1017/eis.2025.10009
Gerstl, A. (2022). Hedging and balancing in Southeast Asia: Between the United States and China. Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, 41(3), 337-360. https://doi.org/10.1177/18681034221140876
Gerstl, A. (2024). Southeast Asia’s grand strategy: Hedging. Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, 21(2), 76-83.
Gstöhl, S. (2021). Neutrality, hedging, and small-state foreign policy in Europe. European Review of International Studies, 8(2), 239-258. https://doi.org/10.3224/eris.v8i2.07
IMF. (2022). Republic of Serbia - 2022 Article IV Consultation Staff Report. International Monetary Fund.
Kazil, J., Masad, D. & Crooks, A. (2020). Utilizing Python for Agent-Based Modeling: The Mesa Framework. In: Thomson, R., Bisgin, H., Dancy, C., Hyder, A., Hussain, M. (Eds.), Social, Cultural, and Behavioral Modeling. SBP-BRiMS 2020. Lecture Notes in Computer Science (), vol 12268. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-61255-9_30
Keohane, R. O. & Nye, J. S. (1977). Power and interdependence: World politics in transition. Little, Brown and Company.
Koga, K. (2018). The concept of hedging revisited: Theoretical implications for alignment strategies in East Asia. International Studies Review, 20(4), 633-660. https://doi.org/10.1093/isr/vix054
Krasner, S. D. (1983). International regimes. Cornell University Press.
Kuik, C.-C. (2008). The essence of hedging: Malaysia and Singapore’s response to a rising China. Contemporary Southeast Asia, 30(2), 159-185.
Lemon, E. (2020). The Western Balkans between Russia and the West: Serbia’s balancing act. European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). Retrieved from: https://tinyurl.com/5n6et7t8
Mietzner, D. & Reger, G. (2005). Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight. International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning, 1(2), 220-239. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJTIP.2005.006516
Mwove, R. M. (2025, January). Strategic responses to geopolitical risks (Preprint). ResearchGate. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.10295.84647
NIN. (2025, October 3). Plenković: I hope the issue of U.S. sanctions will be resolved through changes in NIS’s ownership structure. NIN. Retrieved from: https://tinyurl.com/76efxryt
Price, E. & Clark, W. (2024, February 14). Navigating uncertainty: Practical steps to address geopolitical risk in 2024 [Blog post]. Deloitte UK. Retrieved from: https://tinyurl.com/ymfyxy4v
Qiu, L. & Phang, R. (2020). Agent-based modeling in political decision making. In D. S. Maslove (Ed.), Oxford Encyclopedia of Political Decision Making. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.913
Ramírez, R., & Wilkinson, A. (2016). Strategic reframing: The Oxford scenario planning approach. Oxford University Press.
Reljić, D. (2022). Serbia between the EU and Russia: Balancing or drifting away? European Policy Centre. Retrieved from: https://tinyurl.com/3k842s56
Reuters. (2025, October 3). Serbia will protect its interests regarding NIS oil company, president says. Reuters.
Reuters. (2025, October 8). US postpones sanctions on Serbia’s Russian-owned NIS oil company for one week. Reuters
Rushkovskyi, M. & Rasshyvalov, D. (2023). Multinational companies’ risk management strategies evolving on the brink of the new economic era. Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, 9(1), 146-151.
S&P Global. (2022). Country risk and sovereign rating methodology. S&P Global Ratings. Retrieved from: https://tinyurl.com/3zkfbdhw
Schwartz, P. (1996). The art of the long view: Planning for the future in an uncertain world. Doubleday.
Serbian Times. (2025, October 3). Good news for Serbia: JANAF received permission from America to deliver oil to NIS for seven more days. Serbian Times. Retrieved from: https://tinyurl.com/yppy6357
Sweeney, C., & Fritz, J. (2019). Alliance portfolio diversification and the stability of small states. Foreign Policy Analysis, 15(3), 345-367.https://doi.org/10.1093/fpa/orx028
Wren, C. D., Romanowska, I. & Riede, F. (2025). Bad year econometrics: Agent- - based modeling of risk management strategies under varying regimes of environmental change. Science Advances, 11(3), eadr0314. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adr0314
